STK在电子战交战过程仿真中的应用

针对电子战交战过程仿真中作战效果难以评估、交战过程难以描述的问题,利用系统建模和视景仿真技术,探索了STK在电子战交战过程仿真中的应用方法,分析了STK的电子战仿真应用能力,建立了STK在电子进攻、电子防护和电子支援过程中应用的步骤,并以EA-18G为例,对其电子战交战过程进行了仿真和分析,为进行电子战交战过程数据化、工程化、可视化仿真提供了参考.     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

相对静止气氛下硼颗粒着火过程

针对相对静止气氛下单颗粒硼的着火过程展开了系统研究,考虑硼颗粒周围径向气相流动以及硼颗粒与周围环境间的传热和传质过程,建立了一维硼颗粒着火模型。分析了硼颗粒在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下的颗粒相、气相组分参数以及颗粒外表面上Stefan流的变化规律,并对其成因展开了分析。研究表明,在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下,硼颗粒外表面的Stefan流都会经历先由周围空间流向颗粒表面,而后变为由颗粒表面流向周围空间的过程;考虑颗粒外表面处气相Stefan流作用后,硼颗粒的着火延迟时间减少,且压力越大,影响越大。     

JavaKBB:集成框架与产生式规则的专家系统工具

描述了一个专家系统工具JavaKBB,其目标是设计一个容易使用、方便扩展的专家系统开发工具,可以同时表示领域概念知识与过程知识;既可以运行于商用操作系统Windows等,也可以运行于中标麒麟等军用国产操作系统。为此,提出了一种集成框架与产生式规则的知识表示模式,定义了五种抽象层次以设计一个专家系统,包括知识原语、知识单元、知识部件、知识库以及知识系统;在此基础上基于Java语言设计并实现了JavaKBB。JavaKBB的另外一个重要特征是它能以XML格式保存知识库,具备与其他知识库进行交互的潜力。目前,JavaKBB已经用来构建慢性肝炎防治专家系统、装备辅助决策系统等。     

Dynamic inventory control with limited capital and short‐term financing

For most firms, especially the small‐ and medium‐sized ones, the operational decisions are affected by their internal capital and ability to obtain external capital. However, the majority of the literature on dynamic inventory control ignores the firm's financial status and financing issues. An important question that arises is: what are the optimal inventory and financing policies for firms with limited internal capital and limited access to external capital? In this article, we study a dynamic inventory control problem where a capital‐constrained firm periodically purchases a product from a supplier and sells it to a market with random demands. In each period, the firm can use its own capital and/or borrow a short‐term loan to purchase the product, with the interest rate being nondecreasing in the loan size. The objective is to maximize the firm's expected terminal wealth at the end of the planning horizon. We show that the optimal inventory policy in each period is an equity‐level‐dependent base‐stock policy, where the equity level is the sum of the firm's capital level and the value of its on‐hand inventory evaluated at the purchasing cost; and the structure of the optimal policy can be characterized by four intervals of the equity level. Our results shed light on the dynamic inventory control for firms with limited capital and short‐term financing capabilities.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 184–201, 2014     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

某自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计

为提高某自行火炮弹丸的杀伤效能,寻求该火炮全弹道设计参数间更优的匹配关系,并缩短全弹道设计周期,根据其包含的内弹道、外弹道和终点效应3个分学科之间的耦合关系,建立自行火炮全弹道多学科优化设计模型。以射程最大、杀伤面积最大为优化目标,进行全弹道优化设计。与单目标优化方法对比,多目标优化有效提高了该火炮弹道的综合性能,避免了单个目标优化时其他目标劣化的现象。     

基于AP-DE算法动态迭代步长的研究

为了促进自适应滤波器的滤波性能,建立了一种变步长的基于直接迭代误差AP-DE算法。通过使得权值均方误差下降速度最大,获得了AP-DE算法的优化迭代步长,并分析了所建立算法权值均方误差的统计特性。